A Question of Property - Ep 1 - Paul Mahoney, Stefano Lucatello & John Howard - Nova

A Question of Property – Ep 1 – Paul Mahoney, Stefano Lucatello & John Howard

Lucia France:

Okay. Good morning everybody and welcome to a question of property. How are we all today?

Stefano Lucatello:

Wonderful.

John Howard:

Very well, thank you. Very well.

Lucia France:

Good.

Stefano Lucatello:

Isolated.

Lucia France:

Isolated. We’re going to go from left to right. So we’ve got Paul there, Paul Mahoney, head of Nova Financial Group. Stefano Lucatello who is a senior partner at Kobalt Law, international property lawyers. Morning. And we’ve got John Howard as well, property expert with more than 40 years experience and also of three books now, including the latest one, Buying And Selling at Auction. So good morning everybody.

John Howard:

Good morning, good morning.

Stefano Lucatello:

Morning, morning, morning.

Lucia France:

[crosstalk 00:00:36] questions to get on with today, obviously due to COVID-19 being obviously at the forefront of everybody’s minds. So we will go with a question to Paul first, which I’m sure is relevant to everybody as well. Has revenue slowed for your business due to COVID-19? That one’s for Paul.

Paul Mahoney:

Yeah, so I think revenue has slowed for all businesses aside from online businesses at the moment. I saw Wayfair jumped by 40% yesterday, which was pretty crazy. Everyone [inaudible 00:01:12] out their homes. But yeah, look, I think businesses like ours, services and businesses that people obviously got more important things on their mind at the moment, everything’s kind of gone on pause a little bit. In saying that though, we still do have people buying properties at the moment. A lot of what we do is new build and off plan type properties so it’s still very conceivable to be transacting on those types of properties. Obviously more difficult secondhand ones, but it is still happening, people are still buying in the right circumstances. But yeah, I think things have slowed down undoubtedly and I suppose the length of which that carries on is yet to be determined.

Lucia France:

Absolutely. How you found it guys, John and Stefano? Has it slowed down for your businesses?

John Howard:

[crosstalk 00:02:07].

Stefano Lucatello:

Sorry John.

John Howard:

You go first Stefano.

Stefano Lucatello:

It’s certainly slowed down for us lawyers because not only are people not buying English property, but they’re certainly not buying foreign property. They’re certainly not thinking about foreign property as a first thing. I mean people are thinking about surviving and surviving from hand to mouth and surviving the COVID virus, they’re not really putting any effort into anything else really. I think any business except for an online business where food is supplied or anything like that, I think is suffering.

Lucia France:

Yeah. And John?

John Howard:

Oh well I have to say, I’ve never ever felt sorry for a solicitor and I still don’t. They’re not really helping themselves in this market. I mean we’ve got a number of sales on the go at the moment and the negativity these solicitors are portraying to their clients is absolutely pathetic. I’m not talking about Stefano of course, because he’s a very positive guy, but the average solicitor, my goodness, they’re too scared to cross the road. It’s ridiculous. And we’re trying to push sales through still with delay completions and things like that. And some solicitors are fine. My solicitor’s great, but I’ve worked with him for 30 years. He should be. But the majority we’re dealing with on the other side of transactions are very weak and worried about their own shadow.

Lucia France:

And what is the government saying in terms of what can be done at the moment? Because-

John Howard:

Well, that’s a good point. That’s a very good point, Lucia. The government is saying that if the property is vacant, vacant, there’s no reason why people can’t exchange contracts and moving. And these solicitors are advising their clients not to do so. However, we did have three completions last Friday on projects of ours and they all exchanged and completed on the same day, which was great.

Stefano Lucatello:

Lucia, I have to say to you, in defense of the solicitors that the law society and the solicitors regulation authority has given us clear guidance, two sets of guidance, in the last three weeks as to how we are to behave as solicitors, what we’re supposed to do and what we’re not supposed to do, what we have to try and avoid. So if people haven’t exchanged contracts at the moment, the law society’s telling us that we should be pushing it back. We should be-

John Howard:

Total utter madness. Total utter madness.

Stefano Lucatello:

John, that’s all we can do. We are regulated by the SRA and the law society and that’s all we can do-

John Howard:

I don’t care how regulated you are that’s crackers and solicitors need to bloody realize there’s other people in this that need exchanges and need completion. People have to move home.

Stefano Lucatello:

Where possible-

John Howard:

If it’s empty, there’s no reason why you can’t.

Stefano Lucatello:

That’s not a problem. The law society says that where the property’s empty, where there isn’t a chain, where the people don’t need to be in contact with each other then completion can go ahead. But in many cases it can’t be done-

John Howard:

Some other people in the law society who are reading that obviously are reading differently to you Stefano, which is crazy. Very negative.

Stefano Lucatello:

I think we’ve all got to adopt a common sense attitude and that the appropriate action need to be taken because if we are in contact with each other or the risk of contact to each other, you can’t do it. If the house is empty or the completion is due because the chaps may be renting it and he’s going to buy the rental property and he’s in there, then no problem. But if there is risk of contact then, Lucia, we have to be careful and we can’t do anything else because we’re regulated.

John Howard:

No, I understand that.

Lucia France:

Absolutely. Well that’s it-

Paul Mahoney:

[crosstalk 00:05:36] I think a lot of the time it’s also how it’s communicated. That sometimes in some cases telling clients to delay completions is a good idea. For example, at the moment it’s almost impossible to progress a mortgage. So we are having to get approval through a lot of developers and agents, solicitors to give us more time. [inaudible 00:05:58] pretty much come to a halt where in other cases it’s a very legally jargon letter that’s sent to the client. They have absolutely no idea what it means and it scares them and I don’t think that’s useful whatsoever.

John Howard:

No, Paul. But I would also-

Stefano Lucatello:

No, I mean there’s no point in sending a letter to a client if he doesn’t understand it. It’s all right, us understanding it, but we have to translate things into good English so that the client knows exactly what he or she can do.

John Howard:

Absolutely. All I’m saying is some of them could be a lot more positive than they are and help out poor old developers, people like me, people who are trying to get people moving into their new homes.

Lucia France:

I think the thing is in general, there’s a lot of fear and scaremongering around the whole subject of COVID-19 so perhaps if a little bit more of a positive spin on things would certainly help the general-

Paul Mahoney:

John [inaudible 00:06:50] you’ve never felt sorry for a solicitor, but I’m quite sure that many people are very, very seldom felt sorry for developers either.

Stefano Lucatello:

I resisted the temptation, Paul.

John Howard:

And still don’t.

Stefano Lucatello:

I resisted the temptation to say.

Lucia France:

Okay, right, we’re going to move on. But I think that did raise a really good question about mortgages as well and how people might have had one secured prior to all of this COVID-19 business kicking off and then but they’re going to come to three, six who knows how many months down the line and potentially not be able to do that. Is that something that is a concern for any of you guys?

Stefano Lucatello:

I’ve had a few clients ring me already and email me already who have got properties in Spain, France and Italy. Some are resident over that. Some are not resident because they use the houses as holiday homes and they’ve asked me the question, what will happen if I can’t pay the mortgage and at the end of the day what will happen is that the banks will have an amount of leniency. In Spain, for example, if you’re a resident, not a holiday owner as a leisure place, but as actual residence, they’re giving three months of a vacation on your mortgages. That’s only if you are resident in Spain. In Italy, in France, nothing has happened like that yet, but the outcome will be that if you fail to pay your mortgage, the bank will foreclose on you either directly or by selling the loan onto somebody else.

Stefano Lucatello:

I had one instance this week of a Spanish bank having sold the loan to a loan shark. A company which is now threatening to take possession of the property and to charge something in the region of 46% interest, and so the client is now worried as to what he or she can do. The idea is that you should contact them. It doesn’t matter whether it’s an English bank or a foreign bank. I think the same, I think the guys will agree, the clients should contact the bank at the first instance. They should make the bank aware of the fact that they can’t repay that month’s payments, enter into some form of repayment scheme. The bank will maybe give them a three month deferral, but the interest will continue to ticking in that period. That’s important to note and then come back in three months time.

Stefano Lucatello:

But keep talking to your lender whether it’s a first lender or a second lender, keep talking to them, whether it’s English or foreign. Because if you don’t, if you put your… I mean, one guy said, “What happens if I don’t do anything?” I said, “Well, if you bury your head in the sand, then they will come after you.” They will sell the loan on or they will come after you with some form of debt recovery.

John Howard:

The worst thing anyone can do is bury their head in the sand. It’s madness.

Paul Mahoney:

Whether that be with lenders, developers, agents, communication is key. On the completions and mortgage side of things, the mortgage market at the moment you [inaudible 00:09:34]. The main-

Lucia France:

Sorry Paul, could you just repeat that? It just glitched a little bit.

Paul Mahoney:

The mortgage market in the UK has pretty much been put on pause at the moment. The logic we’ve being given, we’ve obviously got an in house brokerage and we advise on property as well. So we’re on both sides the mortgages and the completion side. It is lenders are being overrun with mortgage holiday inquiries. I’m not sure if anyone’s tried to call their bank over the past couple of weeks, but the wait time is significant. And of course they’re under-resourced as well. Everybody’s working from home and these people aren’t used for working from home and that sort of thing. So that’s the main reason we’ve been given [inaudible 00:10:19] risk averse, so lots of… Pretty much the only mortgages that are being able to progress at the moment are very low loan to value mortgages where [inaudible 00:10:30].

Lucia France:

Sorry Paul. I think that’s just glitched again, just repeat your last sentence.

Stefano Lucatello:

Sorry. Pretty well the only mortgages that are being able to progress at the moment are very low loans to value mortgages and that’s because the lender isn’t concerned about having to do a valuation, they’re quite confident in paper valuations on low loan to values. For example, we have one going through at the moment at a 50% loan to value, so they can pretty accurately estimate a 40000000000 property, they can lend 200000 on that. They’re not too concerned about that. But [inaudible 00:11:09] value, which is usually what our clients go for from buy to let has all been put on pause.

Lucia France:

All right, okay. Thanks. Thanks very much.

Stefano Lucatello:

[crosstalk 00:11:19] I don’t think that’s necessarily something to worry about because it just is the current scenario and there’s also no one to blame for it. It just is what it is.

John Howard:

Well, that’s debatable. That’s debatable as well. Lights a bowl as well.

Stefano Lucatello:

[inaudible 00:11:31] I don’t think you can necessarily blame the lenders for taking that stance.

John Howard:

No, no, no, I wasn’t talking about them.

Lucia France:

I think he meant COVID-19.

John Howard:

[Crosstalk 00:11:39].

Stefano Lucatello:

Mr. Trump will be blaming the Chinese.

John Howard:

Yeah. Well Mr. Trump’s not always wrong is he?

Lucia France:

Moving on. We are going to go to Stefano now. We have another question here a little bit more based at home in Italy. So this is from one of the clients that has been in touch. I’m selling my house in Yorkshire to then invest the net sale proceeds into my purchase in Italy. And then there’s a few questions after that. What will happen once I exchange contracts in the UK and then complete the transaction? How will it work with the sale proceeds being used in Italy and do contract chains exist under Italian law? [crosstalk 00:12:21]

Stefano Lucatello:

Lucia, the first thing to say is that you shouldn’t be exchanging contracts, if exchanging contracts is the right definition, because it doesn’t exist in Italy. We have a totally different system of law, it’s a civil law system, a totally different system of law. It’s now a common law system so exchanging contracts doesn’t exist. So the first thing to do is to exchange contracts in England, exchange contracts in England, and know that you’re on a safe footing because you’re actually going to sell.

Stefano Lucatello:

The next thing is that as we all know completion usually takes place within 30 days of an English completion unless it’s rushed through and there’s something else to do much quicker. So you would not line up your completion in Italy before completion in England takes place. So if you have completion taking place, let’s say, on the 1st of April in England, you would not complete in Italy until let’s say the seventh or the 10th, which means that if you’re moving across in the meantime and traveling across, you’d have to stay in rented accommodation or you’d travel down slowly and get there to Italy for the day of completion for the notary’s office.

Stefano Lucatello:

The monies will go from your lawyer in England, we do this regularly, one of us deals with the English side of things. One of us deals with the foreign side of things, so we move the money that comes in from the sale in England from one client’s account to the other. It goes out from me to Italy to the vendor and the vendor’s notary collects the money and the completion takes place in that manner. It’s usually quite easy to stage, but there is no such thing as chains in Italy and foreign countries. It’s only something that exists here. So make sure that you do your English side of things first and then you can get on with the foreign side of things. It’s usually the case that you can never hold a notary down to completion. He will tell you when he’s ready to complete. So agree it 7, 14 days after you’ve completed your English transaction.

Lucia France:

Okay. And I suppose like you said, make sure you’ve got a secure footing in terms of actually selling the property here as well.

Stefano Lucatello:

Well you wouldn’t put a 10% deposit down on a property abroad until you had exchanged in England. And even then under present circumstances, if it’s happening now, there could be a risk of it not happening. I’ve got a couple of clients who have delayed completions in France and in Spain and they’re saying force majeure and all sorts of the bits and pieces. And then we go into other realms of deciding whether it’s valid or not. But be careful. I would say now that if you can, I would complete, that means fully complete the sale of your English property. Know that you’ve got the money in the solicitor’s client account, all of it, and then I would move forward to buy your property abroad-

John Howard:

I’m assuming there’ll be some great bargains going forward as well. Cash is king, isn’t it? Stefano. If you’re going out there with cash, presumably you’re going to find that you’re going to get a serious deal.

Stefano Lucatello:

Yeah, absolutely. If you’ve got cash now you can buy anywhere and there will be, I reckon in a month or two, there’ll be some great bargains to be had abroad even more so than here are currently because people will be in severe difficulty with paying the mortgages or wanting to get back to the United Kingdom.

Lucia France:

Absolutely. Great. Thank you very much Stefano. We’ll move on to John now. This is a question for you. This person’s written in and said they have a small commercial shop, let out to a local hairdresser. They’re saying that they can’t afford the rent now. What would your advice be? Should I evict them? I imagine this is a very common situation going on at the moment.

John Howard:

Very charming landlords we’ve got there, isn’t it?

Lucia France:

Yeah. Sounds nice.

John Howard:

Very charming. Very kindly.

Stefano Lucatello:

[crosstalk 00:15:54].

John Howard:

Okay. Well the good news for the landlord is that it’s a hairdressers. And the reason I say that is because as soon as the lockdown is over the hairdressers are going to be the most busiest people in the world in my view. So actually I think in this circumstances, not always the same certainly, but in this circumstances I would personally support the hairdresser, not evict them, support them and explain to them you need double the rent in the next quarter, because there’ll be back and they’ll be earning money, they’ll be working very late. So I wouldn’t be giving them the rent free period, a rent free period. I would just defer it and ask them to pay perhaps over the next three quarters so they can catch up. By the end of the year, you’re no worse off than you are. You’ve got all your rent in other words.

John Howard:

Now I’ve got one or two larger commercial tenants at the moment who are, I won’t say who they are, but they’re national tenants both of them. Both of the big ones have said to me, they’re not paying whatsoever, which is very unhelpful considering one, they’re much bigger than me. Secondly, that they’ve had help by the government. They’ve had rates given to them and all sorts of different things as have all the smaller ones as well to be fair. But my view is if I’ve got commercial tenants, I’ve got lots of them, if they’re smaller than me, I’ll help support them if I can. If they’re bigger than me, they can definitely pay me. Definitely pay me.

Lucia France:

So what’s been your discussion with them then when they’ve said that to you?

John Howard:

Not a lot. I said, “I’m not agreeing to a rent free period and I want my money.” and they’ve said, “No.” So I could go in after 21 days and take possession under the terms of most commercial leases, whether I’m going to do that or not, they’ll just have to wait and see, won’t they.

Lucia France:

And just going-

Stefano Lucatello:

There’s no deferral period is there, John? There’s no deferral period for a commercial lease.

John Howard:

No deferral period for a commercial.

Stefano Lucatello:

It’s only for residential property.

John Howard:

Yeah, only for residential, yeah.

Lucia France:

And sorry, just going back to the original question as well, John, we’re talking on the basis of the fact that this will continue for three months let’s say. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s longer than that? It’s six months, it’s nine months. Would you give the same answer?

John Howard:

Lucia, you need to calm down a bit you there.

Lucia France:

I’m panicking, John, help.

John Howard:

You need to relax. This will be out within three months and the reason for that is-

Lucia France:

That’s a fact, ladies and gents.

John Howard:

The government, they can’t let it go on any longer. Businesses in the UK, they need to survive in some way. The government will relax the situation. We won’t be going to pubs and restaurants. Your husband won’t be taking you out to a restaurant anytime soon but he will be able to go to work and you’ll be able to move around and go to work I think certainly within six or eight weeks I think.

Stefano Lucatello:

John, do you think that we will go to a position where, as they have in Wuhan last night, where they reopened everything and they’re now letting traffic through and people can walk and everything else? I don’t see that coming sometime soon, especially with Boris in hospital.

John Howard:

I don’t see that coming straight away. And I think London and the West Midlands obviously are very poor. Other are very bad at the moment. But other areas, I mean sunny Suffolk, beautiful county and here, yes, we’ve got a few problems. We’ve got a few deaths unfortunately, but it’s very different to some other areas which are highly densely populated.

Lucia France:

Right. But I guess I suppose we’re going to have to wait and see on that one. We can’t 100% say.

John Howard:

But don’t go worrying about it, Lucia.

Lucia France:

I’m not.

Paul Mahoney:

Well the current furlough scheme that the government’s brought into place is quite generous in my opinion. And I would have to think, and I haven’t seen the figures on this because I don’t think the portal’s even up yet, but I would have to think that probably half the workforce is going to be put on furlough.

Stefano Lucatello:

If not more.

Paul Mahoney:

That is a huge cost.

John Howard:

They haven’t helped people like me.

Paul Mahoney:

Well, they [crosstalk 00:20:07]

Stefano Lucatello:

You don’t need help, John.

Paul Mahoney:

You’ve got staff so you can put people on furlough and they’re going to cover [crosstalk 00:20:12]-

John Howard:

I’ve done that with the estate agencies, yeah. So they helped me in that respect but they haven’t personally helped me have they? And it’s people like you, me, Stefano who are leading this country in terms of small entrepreneurs are what this country needs and they need to support them better than they have so far. Fortunately I don’t need to borrow any money, any loan from any bank to get me through, fortunately God willing. But if I was, I know from friends who have tried to get these loans, it isn’t easy. They want three years accounts. You can’t borrow more than 25% of your turnover. These banks aren’t making it easy and bear in mind these banks are the same banks that we bailed out in 2008.

Lucia France:

Just talking about borrowing as well. If I may give another question here to Paul, how do you think that the buy to let market is going to fair once all of this craziness is over and everybody’s back out there again?

Paul Mahoney:

No, I think that’s a bit of a crystal ball question and anybody who tries to answer-

Lucia France:

Well, just ask John.

Stefano Lucatello:

He’s into reading balls.

John Howard:

Can I just say the one thing I would say Paul is that I think the buy to let market is actually similar to the stock market in many ways, in that it’s much that even if it goes down a bit, even if it goes down a bit because it’s based on yields and rental yields and so on, it will come back and it will come back higher and better over the next few years. So if I was in a buy to let situation, I wouldn’t be very concerned. One, you can get three months interest holiday if you need it and only take it if you need it. But also going forward, as I said stocks and shares go up and down, all these panicking about the shares price down 30% 40% they all come back eventually. And the same with the buy to let market. As long as you got a tenant who’s paying, I wouldn’t be terribly concerned.

Stefano Lucatello:

I wouldn’t agree with you, John.

John Howard:

Well that’s a surprise.

Stefano Lucatello:

I think COVID-19 has caused us to go into a marketplace that we’ve never been in before and to experience matters in a way that we’ve never experienced before. I think the whole landscape will change whether you’re a developer, whether you’re a buyer, whether you’re a lawyer, whatever. I think the whole landscape will change in the next three to six months for all of us. And all of us will have to change the way in which we work, in which we deal with business and we deal with other countries. Because remember that we may come out of COVID-19 in three or four weeks time, whatever you think it may be. I doubt it very much. But remember, other countries may not. So we may still be landlocked if not city locked and we will have to deal with things in a different way.

John Howard:

I understand that. And my caveat would be as long as people haven’t lost their jobs. But don’t forget if you’ve lost your job in the UK and you’ll get support from the government, you can still pay your rent.

Stefano Lucatello:

Well, I mean what about all the people who’ve lost their jobs [inaudible 00:23:14]? They’ve gone into administration.

John Howard:

Don’t get me wrong, there will be lots of casualties, but what I’m saying, if you’ve got a buy to let and you’ve got a tenant who is working, you haven’t got too much to worry about. If you’ve got a development half finished, that’s a totally different kettle of fish.

Stefano Lucatello:

Presumably-

Lucia France:

If we could just head back to Paul there as well. What’s your answer?

John Howard:

Sorry, Paul.

Paul Mahoney:

[crosstalk 00:23:36] my question, that’d be great, thanks. So I started off by saying it’s a bit of a crystal ball question and I think it is because anybody who tells you they know the direction the market’s going is being disingenuous. No one knows that’s [crosstalk 00:23:52] answer.

John Howard:

Agree.

Paul Mahoney:

And the reality is if you look at history, the media and the masses are almost definitely wrong. For example, if we look back at the last financial crisis, 2007 just before the last financial crisis, and if you ask the bricklayer around the corner or anyone if property is a good investment, they would’ve said, “Yes. You’re mad not to invest in it. It’s taking off. It’s never going to stop.” And of course that was the worst time to buy because it was just before the crash. But even still if you’d bought then you still would have done quite well by now. If you then go a few years on depending on the location, but let’s say 2009 2010 everybody was depressed. It was the worst time to buy [inaudible 00:24:37] property can’t make any money, actually it would be the best time to buy-

Lucia France:

Sorry. Paul, just repeat that once more because it glitched again.

Paul Mahoney:

Sorry. So 2009 2010 it was the trough of the market. Everybody would’ve told you it was the worst time to buy because they’ve just experienced a downturn. But actually it was the best time to buy. So I do somewhat agree with John in that the buy to let is somewhat like the share market. However, it’s a lot more robust than the share market.

John Howard:

Yeah, definitely.

Paul Mahoney:

Because people need a roof over their heads. Especially in the right location, if you’re investing in desirable, centrally located properties with lots of employment facilities and amenities, those people do not disappear overnight. For example, going back to that same example, 2008, 2009 or 2008 alone, the FTSE or share index fell by 32% and the property market fell by 8% on average. The total downturn across the UK over the last financial crisis was 16% on average across the whole country, which in my opinion is relatively minimal and that’s why I agree with John in that 16% you can swallow and unless you’re selling at that point in time, you won’t have even noticed. So that’s why buy to lend in the right properties that are rentable regardless of the economic cycle, because again, jobs don’t disappear, people don’t disappear. If there’s an abundance of employment and facilities in a particular location, your property will still rent and therefore you can’t go too far wrong. Even if you buy at the worst possible time, you should still do well over the mid to long term.

Lucia France:

As long as you can just hang onto it for X amount of time. That’s great, thanks so much.

Paul Mahoney:

[crosstalk 00:26:32]

Lucia France:

Sorry, say that again.

Paul Mahoney:

So rentability is key, making sure it’s very attractive to the rental market because the rental market is very different to the capital growth side of the coin.

Lucia France:

And I suppose keeping a level head and not panicking is always helpful as well in these situations. That brings us to the end of this first show. Thank you very much guys, Stefano, John and Paul for all of your input here today. If you’ve got any questions, you can email us, ask@aquestionofproperty.co.uk. That’s ask@aquestionofproperty.co.uk. And we’ll see you again next time. Thank you.

Paul Mahoney:

Thank you.

John Howard:

That was good. Really good.

Paul Mahoney:

[crosstalk 00:27:14].

Lucia France:

Great stuff.

Paul Mahoney:

I’ll stop recording.

Lucia France:

And we can stop recording. Yeah.

Paul Mahoney:

Stop recording. Do you want to stop recording? Yes.

 

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