Manchester Housing Report - Nova
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Manchester Housing Market

Population Growth

  • Mid-Year Estimate of Manchester population was 545,501 in 2017, an increase of 8.4% from the 2011 number of 503,127 (Manchester City Council)
  • The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model predicts that the population will grow to above 570,000 by 2024.
  • Population in the City Centre area = 52,671 in 2017 (Manchester City Council)
  • Predicted to rise to 79,019 in 2027 by Manchester City Council with a large increase in 19-49 age group
  • However, Manchester Place, the partnership between Manchester City Council and the Homes and Communities Agency, forecasts the city centre population to rise above 80,000 by 2024
  • From 2002 to 2015, Manchester experienced population growth of 149% in the city centre (Centre for Cities)
  • International immigration remains an important driver behind the city’s growing population, with EU Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal making up an increasing proportion of new arrivals to the city (Manchester City Council)

Graph showing population increase with future projection in Manchester City Centre (Source: Manchester Place)

 

Student Population

  • Manchester City Council reported that the University of Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan University attracted approximately 73,100 students in 2015/16. This was the largest student population since 2012 when tuition fees increased. Out of these students, around 47,500 lived in the city. There were also a further 4,400 students at other universities residing in the city
  • Several new student housing developments have prompted a shift towards the city centre and surrounding wards over the last decade for students
  • Many of these students remain in the city after graduation. Manchester has the highest graduate retention of any UK cities rate outside of London. The large student and young graduate population means that there is a strong demand for rental properties, especially in the city centre. JLL reported in 2017 that two thirds of the city centre population are private renters.

Housing Supply

  • Total Number of City Centre Properties – 10,202
  • Properties in Miles Platting & Newton Heath, Moston and City Centre – 23,952
  • The proportion of home owners dropped from 72% in April 2003 to 58% this year in Greater Manchester, according to a Resolution Foundation report. (Zoopla) This suggests that the rental market is growing stronger as more young people choose to rent.
  • GMCA reported that since 2008, only around 3,000 new homes are built every year in Greater Manchester. The Greater Manchester Spatial Framework, produced by GMCA in 2016, stated that Greater Manchester requires 227,200 new homes from 2015 to 2035 at an average of 11,360 per year
  • In March 2016 the Executive endorsed the Manchester Residential Growth Strategy which set a minimum target of 25,000 new homes to be delivered within the city by 2025 (gov.co.uk). There is a currently a development pipeline in excess of 20,000 units
  • However, the vast majority of those units are at the pre-planning stage and only around 10% are currently under construction. Meanwhile the city centre has seen, and continues to see, significant population growth creating a shortfall in delivery currently of more than 2,000 homes pa according to Manchester Place.
  • Despite there being a large number of homes in the planning process there is likely to be an undersupply in the next 3-5 years due to the strong economic performance of the city centre continuing to create significant population growth. There is not likely to be any large-scale completions until 2019, which will continue to fuel strong price growth.
  • 27 developments on-site in the city centre providing circa 5,000 new homes. New homes on-site in the city centre are up by 135% since 2015/16

(Source: Manchester Place)

 

House Prices

City Centre House Price Growth (%)
  2014 2015 2016
Manchester 6.3 9.5 15.0

 

House Price Growth Forecast (%)
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Manchester 6.5 3.5 4.0 4.5
UK 1.0 2.0 4.0 5.0

 

Rental Price Growth Forecast (%)
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Manchester 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.5
UK 3.0 3.5 3.5 4.0

 

  • The M12 borough in Manchester came fifth in the list of UK hotspots in research from Which?. The average house price in the borough rose by 32% to £98,000 for the period between December 2014 and November 2015. This was a massive climb from the previous average, for 2011 to 2014, of £74,000 (Manchester Evening News)
  • A new UK Cities House Price Index from Hometrack has revealed that Manchester is still one of the top major UK cities in terms of house price growth, with a 7.1% average property price rise over the twelve months to February 2018. This followed a 6.6% gain in the 12 months prior to this. In both years Manchester was well above the UK average of 4.6% in 2017-2018 and 4.3% in 2016-2017.
  • Homes in the city now costs an average £160,000, compared to the London average of £487,900 according to Hometrack’s data – but the gap is expected to narrow.
  • House prices in England’s north-west are set to rise 18.1% from 2017- 2021, property advisor JLL has revealed in a research paper published in 2017. This data comes after a great year for Mancunian residential property as city centre properties increased by 15.0% in 2016
  • Research reveals there is a high demand for city centre accommodation, with more than six applicants for each letting in 2015 – JLL

Graph shows a consistent shortfall in property since 2010. Although the gap between supply and demand is forecast to narrow in the future, the undersupply is expected to remain until at least 2024. (Source: Manchester Place)

 

Summary

The evidence highlights a significant undersupply of new housing delivery in Manchester in recent years. The combination of a rapidly increasing population and a low level of housebuilding has led to an increase in household size and has increased the pressure on the existing housing stock. In recent years the rate of supply of new homes has improved and it is only now that house-building in Manchester is getting back to the levels that were seen pre-recession. Nevertheless, it is expected to take many years for the shortfall to be reduced significantly as many developments are only in planning or pre-planning stages. In addition, the city centre population is forecast to be boosted by a large increase in the 35-49 age group, increasing the strain on the central housing supply.

 

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